Objectives To address the challenges of preventing non-random multiple concurrent faults caused by cable aging in shipboard power grids through preventive reconfiguration, and to resolve the issue of unreasonable weight coefficient settings in multi-objective reconfiguration models, thereby enhancing the safety and reconfiguration efficiency of shipboard power grids, a predictive fault reconfiguration method for shipboard power grids based on a bi-level optimization strategy is proposed.

Methods A cable aging fault prediction model for shipboard grids was constructed based on Markov chains and thermo-electro-mechanical multi physics analysis. This model was integrated as a constraint into the reconfiguration framework to avoid high-risk branches. A dual-layer optimization strategy was proposed: the upper layer dynamically solves multi-objective weight coefficients using the whale migration algorithm (WMA), while the lower layer determines the optimal switch configuration for grid reconfiguration using a multi-strategy-improved dung beetle optimizer (MSDBO).

Results After integrating the fault prediction model, the reconfiguration strategy achieved 100% avoidance of high-risk branches (fault probability ≥0.5) proactively. Compared to the conventional two-step passive reconfiguration strategy, convergence speed improved by 47.06%. The dual-layer optimization framework enabled adaptive dynamic adjustment of weight coefficients and increased reconfiguration convergence speed by 56.25%.

Conclusions The integration of the cable aging fault prediction model and the dual-layer optimization framework effectively enables predictive reconfiguration of shipboard power grids. This approach proactively mitigates non-random faults while significantly improving reconfiguration efficiency and rationality. It offers a novel solution for addressing predictive reconfiguration challenges in non-random multiple-fault scenarios.